英语翻译The priority of liberalism in multicausal models of stat

英语翻译
The priority of liberalism in multicausal models of state behaviorimplies,furthermore,that collective state behavior should be analyzed as a two-stage processofconstrained social choice.States first define preferences-a stageexplained by liberaltheories of state-society relations.Then they debate,bargain,or fightto particularagreements-a second stage explained by realist and institutionalist (aswell asliberal) theories of strategic interaction.l17 The two-stage model offersa general structurefor research design and theoretical explanation.In those cases whereliberalfactors only influence strategic outcomes directly,through preferencesand preferenceintensities (a in Figure I),liberalism can be tested as a monocausalhypothesisagainst alternative realist or institutionalist factors (c in Figure 1).Liberal factorsmay also influence outcomes indirectly,because the nature of preferenceshelps determine(b inFigure 1) the nature and strength of the causal relationship betweenstrategic circumstances and actions (c in Figure 1).Recall thatpreferences do notsimply shape outcomes,they tell us which realist or institutionalistfactors are importantand how they relate to state behavior.In such cases,explaining (or atleastcontrolling for) variation in state preferences is analytically prior toan analysis ofstrategic interaction.Without a prior analysis of preferences,onlymonocausal formulationsof realist or institutionalist theory can be tested.

另外,优先突出国家行为多重因果关系模型中的自由主义就意味着集体国家行为应当以局限社会选择的两级进程予以分析.国家首先定义偏好---这个阶段由国家-社会关系的自由理论予以阐释.之后他们就某些协定进行辩论、讨价还价或斗争---这第二个阶段由战略互动的现实主义和机构主义（以及自由主义）理论予以阐释.这个两级模型为研究设计和理论阐释提供了一个广义的框架.在自由主义因素通过偏好以及偏好强度（图表1中的a）而仅仅直接影响战略结果时,自由主义便可以相对替代性现实主义或机构主义因素（图表1中的c）而作为一个单一因果假说而予以测试.由于偏好的本质有助于确定（图表1种的b）战略环境与战略行动（图表1种的c）之间因果关系的本质和力度,所以自由主义因素也可以间接地影响结果.现在请回想一下,偏好并不仅仅造就结果,而且还会告诉我们那些现实主义或机构主义因素是重要的,以及这些因素如何与国家行为发生关联.在以上情况下,阐释（至少控制）国家偏好的变量就在分析上优先于对战略互动的分析.如果没有首先进行偏好方面的分析,那么只能测试现实主义或机构主义理论形成的单一因果关系.