英语翻译China's current-account surplus Incredibly Misleading Fo

英语翻译
China's current-account surplus
Incredibly Misleading Forecasts?
How not to predict one of the world’s most sensitive numbers
THE leaves of the compass plant always point north.The International Monetary Fund has developd a similar trait.Over the past four years,in successive editions of its “World Economic Outlook”,the fund has forecast that China’s current-account surplus would widen over the next five years,or at least remain constant.Instead the surplus has consistently fallen,from 10.6% of GDP in 2007 to 5.2% last year.Undeterred,in its latest forecast the IMF says that China’s surplus will rise to 6.8% of GDP in 2013 and almost 8% by 2016.
The decline in China’s surplus is partly due to the slump in its exports caused by the unexpectedly deep recession in rich economies.Could this explain the IMF’s overshooting?Not really:the IMF was wider of the mark than most forecasters.In April 2009,when it predicted a surplus of 9.3% of GDP for 2010,the average forecast of five investment banks was 6% of GDP.
The IMF may have been too pessimistic about growth in China’s domestic demand (and hence its imports),but a bigger problem is the exchange rate it uses.The fund always assumes that real trade-weighted exchange rates remain constant,and because China has higher inflation than America this has often implied a depreciation in its nominal exchange rate.(The IMF does not actually spell out its forecast for the yuan but this can be calculated by dividing GDP in yuan terms by dollar GDP.) For example,its latest forecast implicitly assumes that the yuan will weaken to an average rate of 7.04 to the dollar in 2013 from a current rate of 6.53.Most forecasters assume a further appreciation against the dollar.Paul Cavey at Macquarie has pencilled in a rate of 5.8 yuan to the dollar for 2013,for example,when he expects the current-account surplus to be 3.6% of GDP.
Since 2007 the yuan’s real trade-weighted value has not been constant,as the IMF always assumes,but has risen by 15-20%,helping to trim China’s surplus.A forecast which assumes that the yuan steadily depreciates against the dollar seems unrealistic.Yet by predicting a widening current-account surplus in China,the IMF provides respected fodder for protectionists who want to slap tariffs on Chinese goods.The fund badly needs a new compass.

中国的经常帐盈余
令人难以置信的误导预测?
怎么不来预测世界上最敏感的一个数字
叶植物的指南针总是指向北方.国际货币基金会developd类似的特征.在过去的四年里,在其“世界经济展望”连续版本,该基金已预测,中国的经常账户顺差将扩大,在未来五年内,或至少保持不变.相反,盈余持续下降,从10.6％,2007年国内生产总值的5.2％,去年同期.气馁,在国际货币基金组织的最新预测说,中国的顺差将上升至6.8％的GDP在2013年和2016年近8％.
在中国的顺差下降的部分原因是在其出口下滑的富裕的经济体深度衰退造成的意外.请问这是否能解释国际货币基金组织的过度?不是真的：国际货币基金组织是比大多数预测更广泛的标记. 2009年4月,当预测的9.3％的GDP为2010年的盈余,五个投资银行的平均预测为GDP的6％.
国际货币基金组织可能已经过于担心在中国的国内需求（因而它的进口）的增长持悲观态度,但更大的问题是它使用的汇率.该基金始终假定实际贸易加权汇率保持不变,因为中国具有较高的通胀率比美国这常常隐含在其名义汇率贬值. （国际货币基金组织实际上并没有详细说明其预测的人民币,但是这可以在元计算除以国内生产总值国内生产总值按美元计算的.）例如,它的最新预测隐含假定人民币将削弱到一个平均率降至7.04从2013年的6.53美元的兑换率.多数预测假设人民币兑美元进一步升值.保罗在麦格理凯维有铅笔在5.8人民币汇率对美元的2013年,例如,当他预计经常项目顺差为GDP的3.6％.
自2007年以来,人民币的实际贸易加权价值尚未常数,国际货币基金组织总是假定,但增加了15-20％,帮助削减中国的顺差.一个预测,假定人民币兑美元稳步贬值似乎是不现实的.然而,通过预测不断扩大的经常账户顺差在中国,国际货币基金组织提供保护主义者谁想要对中国商品的关税尊重饲料巴掌.该基金迫切需要新的指南针